Regional office market at the start of the year: investment slowdown and selective demand
Limited new deliveries
Developers have noticeably slowed down their activity across regional office markets. Since the beginning of the year, the stock of modern office space in the largest cities outside Warsaw has gone up by 47,200 sqm, marking an increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. However, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland analysts expect supply to stay limited in the coming quarters.
“Annual completions will most likely come in at below 100,000 sqm, making it one of the weakest results since 2006. The structure of new supply is shifting towards smaller developments, with only a limited number of projects above 10,000 sqm coming through,” says Ewa Nicewicz, Senior Consultant, Office Agency, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
New supply in regional markets is currently limited to a handful of developments. The largest projects delivered in Q1 2026 include:
- - Swobodna SPOT in Wrocław (14,600 sqm) by Echo Investment
- - .PUNKT in Gdańsk (12,700 sqm) by Torus
- - The Park Wrocław II (9,500 sqm) by Projektmanagement Polska
- - Fabryczna Office Park B7 in Kraków (8,400 sqm) by Inter-Bud
At the end of March, just under 190,000 sqm was under construction, down both quarter-on-quarter (–18%) and year-on-year (–46%). Projects scheduled for completion by the end of 2027 are mainly concentrated in core regional hubs, with as much as 65% located in Kraków and Poznań.
At present, the largest office stocks are found in:
- - Kraków: 27% of the market
- - Wrocław: 20%
- - Tricity: 16%
Leasing activity slows down
Q1 2026 figures point to a cooling-off in tenant activity. After a strong year-end, leasing volume between January and March came in at approx. 121,500 sqm, down by 51% compared to the previous quarter and nearly 30% lower year-on-year.
Over the past 12 months, total take-up reached almost 718,000 sqm, slightly edging down (–2.5%) compared to the same period a year earlier.
In Q1 2026:
- - Tricity accounted for 41% of total leasing volume largest deals included:
- Adtran lease renewal (6,800 sqm) in Tensor Y new lease (6,100 sqm) signed by a confidential tenant in Alchemia IV Neon Business Park II
- - Wrocław held 21% of the market largest deal: renewal by a confidential tenant (13,000 sqm) in Business Garden Wrocław
- - Kraków held a 14% share notable transaction: PepsiCo renegotiation (5,400 sqm) in Brain Park A.
At the start of the year, new leases led the way, making up 51% of total volume, while renegotiations accounted for 37%. This suggests companies are, for the time being, opting to stay put, and when they move, they tend to opt for top-tier, newly completed schemes. Looking at the past four quarters, renewals have made up more than half of all deals signed.
Vacancy rate ticks up
At the end of March 2026, around 1.18 million sqm of office space was immediately available across the eight main regional markets, pushing the vacancy rate up to 17.4% (+0.5 pp quarter-on-quarter).
Despite relatively high vacancy levels, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland analysts point out that limited new supply and ongoing market fundamentals should help absorb vacant space gradually over the coming quarters.
Vacancy levels vary significantly by city:
- lowest: Szczecin – 7.9%
- highest: Katowice – 22.1%, Wrocław – 22%
Kraków remains the leader in terms of available space, with 341,000 sqm for immediate lease.
Landlords step up competition for tenants
Regional markets are currently stabilising, which is reflected in rental levels. Prime office rents hold firm at EUR 16.00–18.00/sqm/month, mirroring a balance between demand and constrained new supply. At the same time, landlords are stepping up and offering attractive incentive packages.
“The availability of large floor plates (over 3,000–5,000 sqm) is shrinking, driven by limited development activity and ongoing absorption. Given the elevated vacancy rates, landlords are competing hard to win tenants. To keep headline rents high, they are increasingly rolling out attractive incentive packages, including rent-free periods and fit-out contributions. Over the medium term, upward pressure on Prime rents in best-in-class assets can also be expected,” highlights Wiktoria Weilandt, Associate Director, Office Agency, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
